What just happened: Inflation ticks up

What just happened: Inflation ticks up

According to Statistics Canada, Canada’s annual inflation rate rose to 2.4% in September (from 1.9% in August). 

• Food prices were up sharply (≈4 % year-on-year) and shelter costs (like rent) rose ~4.8%. 

• Gasoline prices pulled some of the headline down, but the “core inflation” measure (which removes volatile items) still sits at ~2.8%. 

• The rise comes at a time when the Bank of Canada (BoC) is under pressure to decide whether to cut, hold or raise its overnight rate.

In short: inflation is no longer safely below the BoC’s target of ~2 %. That raises questions about what the next rate move will be.

Why this matters for interest-rates

Interest‐rates and the BoC’s decisions matter a lot for real estate: mortgage rates, borrowing costs, buyer confidence, and the pace of transactions all move in response. Here are key dynamics to keep in mind:

+ If inflation stays elevated → slower rate cuts, maybe even hikes

• Since inflation is above target and “sticky” in certain categories, the BoC may decide not to cut rates yet, or delay cuts.

• Some economists even note that despite last month’s inflation uptick, a cut in October is still the “base-case” but not guaranteed. 

• If inflation accelerates further, the BoC could consider raising rates again — which would increase mortgage rates and borrowing costs.

- If inflation cools → rate cuts become more likely

• If future inflation prints come in closer to or below target, the BoC will have room to reduce its overnight rate.

• Rate cuts typically lead to lower mortgage costs, which can stimulate buyer activity and raise demand in housing.

What this means for Calgary real estate (buyers & sellers)

For Buyers

• Now is a strategic moment to lock in financing or begin preparations: if rates get cut, you’ll benefit; if they are held or increased, acting quickly might save you money.

• Consider getting pre-approved sooner rather than later. With inflation showing signs of staying elevated, delays could hurt affordability.

• Don’t rely solely on the hope of rate cuts — plan for a scenario where rates stay where they are or even tick up.

• Also watch local market stress-points: higher inflation = higher costs for homeowners (maintenance, utilities, insurance), which could influence what sellers are willing to accept.

For Sellers

• Rate-sensitive buyers: If rates go up or remain high, some buyers will become more cautious. That could slow your pool of potential buyers or shift bargaining power slightly to buyers.

• On the flip side: if inflation starts falling and cuts are expected, you could see increased buyer competition. Timing your listing around favorable rate commentary could matter.

• Factor in your own carrying costs: higher interest rates, higher inflation means higher costs (property taxes, utilities, maintenance) — all of which can influence your pricing and urgency.

• Marketing should emphasize value and certainty: buyers in a rate-watch mood may favour homes that are turnkey, low-maintenance, strong value.

The near-term outlook

• Watch for the next BoC interest-rate announcement: it’s a pivotal date. The last print came on Oct. 29. 

• If inflation remains above ~2–3 % and core inflation remains elevated, the BoC may hold rates or even consider hikes.

• If inflation softens meaningfully, we could see one more cut in the near term.

• For Calgary’s market: central location, commuting ease, amenities and value matter — so homes that check those boxes will appeal especially when uncertainty around rates exists.

Your real-estate action plan

• Buyers: get your financing in place, lock in favourable terms if you can, and be ready to move if rate news shifts.

• Sellers: ensure your home is positioned as a value proposition, highlight how it minimizes risk for a buyer in a rate-uncertain environment (e.g., low maintenance, efficient, strong location).

• Both parties: work with a local agent who can monitor rate announcements, inflation data, and market sentiment — because timing and perception matter.

If you’re thinking of buying or selling in Calgary and want to talk about how the upcoming rate announcements may affect your decision—let’s connect. I’m here to help you make a plan that’s ready for whatever direction the market takes